Euro, EU-US
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The Euro has accelerated its downward momentum vs. the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, sending EUR/USD south of the 1.1600 support to hit new two-week troughs. The pullback came as the Greenback found its footing again, nudging the Dollar Index (DXY) well north of the 98.00 hurdle.
The pound briefly hit a two-year low versus the euro on Monday, before rebounding, and dipped on the dollar, though its moves were largely a function of those elsewhere as investors digested the announcement of an EU-U.
“Further euro strength is likely to be self-defeating,” said Valentin Marinov, a currency strategist at Crédit Agricole, a French bank. Exports were already likely to weaken and become a drag on the eurozone economy because of U.S. tariffs and European government policies that would encourage more imports.
The American dollar has hit its rock bottom, at least since the Nixon days. The dollar is experiencing its worst value since 1973, and other factors may bring it even lower. There are a few tactics, however,
The dollar rose against the euro and yen on Monday as markets were buoyed by a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which brought some market certainty and averted a global trade war.
Emerging-market borrowers are tapping the euro bond market at the fastest pace in over a decade, capitalizing on the rising demand for diversification away from the US dollar.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Thursday the bank was monitoring the dollar-euro exchange rate but had no target, after gains in the euro stoked concerns about the impact on the eurozone.
There is a chance for Euro (EUR) to rise above 1.1775 against US Dollar (USD); the major resistance at 1.1795 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, price action indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.