By Philip Blenkinsop and Trevor Hunnicutt BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The European Union and the U.S. are moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions,

While recession odds have been dialed back in recent weeks, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal still see 33% odds of one coming within a year, compared with 22% at the start of 2025. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 compiled by research group FactSet are 3% lower since then, the Journal said.